A Planetary Geopolitical Realignment?

Could the next international order be characterized by a struggle between a nascent DC-Moscow Petrostate Axis, arrayed against a Beijing-Brussels Green Entente?

Last month in Foreign Policy I proposed that the world stands on the cusp of a geopolitical reordering on a scale not seen since at least 1989, and arguably since 1945 or even 1919. Observing that the old order is dead is easy; much harder is anticipating what shape the new order may take once the chips fall. What follows is one speculation about the emerging order, a speculation that a year ago might have seemed mere fanciful speculation but which now seems if not probable, at least plausible: a nascent DC-Moscow Petrostate Axis, arrayed against a potential Beijing-Brussels Green Entente. Should it materialize (and that’s the key word), this coalescing of the European Union and China into a cohesive bloc centered on renewable energy would represent a fundamental shift in the global balance of power.

One half of this equation seems evident enough: while the reasons for Trump’s long term love affair with Vladimir Putin have been debated endlessly, the fact of it is undeniable. Speculations on psychological motives and kompromat may be fun, but at the base material level, both share a vision of their countries as continental scale, hydrocarbon-rich superpowers (the U.S. and Russia are the two biggest oil producers on the planet) with much to gain from the continued pumping. For both countries the proposed global green energy transition represents a potential cashectomy of world-historical proportions. At the same time, both Putin and Trump are evidently prepared to use their dominance of the currently dominant energy regime as a cudgel with which to pressure lesser and oil-importing states.

It’s the other side of the equation that seems perhaps more dubious. The European Union and China of course stand far apart on cultural and political issues concerning human rights. But looking at the material ends of things, the alignment seems more plausible. Not only are China and the EU currently the two biggest oil importers on the planet, but for exactly that reason they have both become the fastest developers and deployers of renewable energy technologies. These material facts also have crucial geostrategic implications. Europe, having already suffered the consequences of its reliance on Russian gas, now confronts the unsettling prospect of long-term dependence on American LNG and OPEC oil, giving it a strong strategic incentive to seek energy autonomy. Concurrently, China's unchallenged leadership in solar, wind, and battery production provides a compelling foundation for a formalized Sino-European supply chain partnership, ensuring Europe’s access to vital technologies and raw materials.

Should the United States, under a resolutely anti-green MAGA administration, pivot decisively toward fossil fuel dominance, the European Union might find itself compelled to forge a strategic alliance with China as the sole viable path to planetary decarbonization. China, in turn, seeking to transition from an export-driven model to a technology-driven green growth paradigm, could leverage a deepened partnership with the EU to mitigate excess industrial capacity in renewables while securing European technological collaboration in critical sectors such as hydrogen, smart grids, and nuclear fusion. The convergence of Russia and the United States around global hydrocarbon dominance would further solidify this emerging alignment, providing a common adversary for both China and Europe (as well as everyone else interested in abating runaway climate change).

Getting there from here

The process of constructing this Sino-European Green Entente will likely unfold in distinct phases. Initially, economic and technological integration will take precedence, characterized by bilateral agreements establishing a joint clean energy fund, the expansion of Chinese renewable energy investments in Europe, and the establishment of supply chain agreements facilitating technology sharing. Europe will progressively reduce its dependence on American LNG, forging long-term contracts with China for green hydrogen and battery storage.

Subsequently, institutional coordination and geopolitical shifts will manifest, with the creation of a “Green Bretton Woods” system to challenge the existing petrodollar system, the adoption of a common industrial policy, and joint diplomatic initiatives at the United Nations and G20, advocating for carbon tariffs against fossil-fuel-dependent economies. The China-EU Entente will exert increasing pressure on OPEC, accelerating price collapses and diminishing the geopolitical leverage of petrostates.

In the long term, a closer economic alliance between the EU and China would precipitate a reevaluation of European security dependencies, potentially leading to cooperation with China on military technology, cybersecurity, and AI-driven energy defense systems. (One former senior person in the French finance ministry recently told me that if the Europeans “have to choose between building our ‘stack’ on technology controlled by Elon Musk and Donald Trump versus one controlled by Xi Jinping and the CCP, we might prefer the latter — because at least Xi isn’t going to campaign with the AfD.”) Competition for resources in Africa and South America will intensify, pitting the China-EU Entente against the United States in a struggle for control over global supply chains. The United States and Russia might respond by imposing sanctions and restricting access to semiconductors and financial markets, compelling Beijing and Brussels to construct an alternative economic system. Ultimately, the China-EU Entente could encourage OPEC+ nations to transition toward renewables, further undermining the US-Russia petro-alliance.

The emergence of an China-EU Entente will produce clear winners and losers. While it might gain in the short run, the United States over the longer term will face economic stagnation as fossil fuel dominance wanes and green technology shifts to China-Europe. Russia will confront economic collapse as oil and gas revenues dwindle. Both together face the prospect of having the Green Entente brand them “an axis of ecological evil” for continuing to exacerbate the planetary climate crisis. On the other side, China will continue its ascent to the position of renewable energy hegemon, reducing its reliance on the American financial system. Europe will achieve energy independence and industrial resurgence, freed from its dependence on Russian-American-Middle Eastern fossil fuels. Countries in the Global South will benefit from green investment, escaping the clutches of petrodollar debt. And it could be that India — the rising superpower of the 21st century — will hold the deciding cards.

This is of course a speculation

Despite the compelling logic of this scenario, formidable barriers remain. In Europe, human rights advocates will blanche at the idea of a deep partnership with an authoritarian Beijing. Even less sentimental types have strong concerns over China’s long-term ambitions for geopolitical dominance. Most importantly, internal divisions within the European Union may impede any decisive shift away from the longstanding transatlantic alignment with United States and toward China.

Conversely, if an EU-China alliance begins to appear plausible, a MAGA-ified United States will likely employ its considerable leverage, including sanctions and perhaps even security threats, to obstruct closer EU-China cooperation. Finally, China’s own energy needs, coupled with its continued reliance on coal, may hinder its capacity to fully decarbonize while spearheading the global renewable energy drive.

While a formal China-EU military alliance remains improbable, even if NATO collapses, a progressive economic realignment, characterized by a gradual reduction of European dependence on American energy and a deepening of ties with China, appears increasingly plausible. This delicate balancing act, underpinned by a shared commitment to green industrial policy, could ultimately reshape the contours of planetary geopolitics.